1 College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'

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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering a lot of time for vacation shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, including three relatively non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't appear to think so. At least in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of total dollars since Monday afternoon.

"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."

The interest for the Longhorns reaches the futures market also. Remember that massive $1.5 million wager on Texas to win everything at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.

Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.

John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable player."

Although highly regarded cash has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do just that, as public bettors are overdoing Texas.

"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.

While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We chatted with several bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State

This game opened Penn State -10.5 at most sportsbooks and has crept up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively divided at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to overall tickets at BetMGM books.

"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State money."

Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd chance it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?

No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon

Perhaps most surprising to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.

So why is OSU preferred?

Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power score in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.

Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before highly regarded money pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the money has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the four come kickoff.

"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.

Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."

He did note, though, that the book had actually seen significant buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.

GO DEEPER

The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)

The favorite turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.

What caused the line flip? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Although Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.

Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.